Newbuild prices are at highs not experienced since their peak in 2008, with yards set to haul in a still very sizeable chunk of orders before the end of the year. 

The newbuilding price index created by Clarksons Research is now on a par with the 2008 peak in nominal terms, standing at 190 points, having risen by 52% from the late-2020 low. 

“Newbuild prices remain elevated, with continuing support from strong ordering volumes, firm forward cover and inflationary pressures at yards,” Clarksons noted in its most recent weekly report.

“The high ordering activity for container and LNG vessels in 2021/22 has exerted even more pressure on shipyard capacity and building periods,” states a recent report from VesselsValue, adding: “Due to the increase in orders, shipyards have held the upper hand in price negotiations and prices have climbed.”

It has been a banner year for Asian shipbuilders with average prices for newbuilds hitting record highs. 

Shipyards have held the upper hand in price negotiations and prices have climbed

The average newbuild price in 2024 has hit $90m, 30% above the previous high set in 2022, and far above the average levels across the last decade of closer to $50m, according to Clarksons data.

The British broker cites the increasing deployment of green technologies, a higher value product mix as well as owners signing up for larger ships as contributing factors to the pricier newbuilds. For instance, the average size of a ship ordered this year stands at 54,000 gt, a record high, up 40% on the 10-year average, while higher cost ship types such as gas carriers, containerships and cruiseships account for almost 50% of the tonnage ordered this year compared to an average across the 2010s of just 28%.

Shipyards have seen a firm run of newbuild ordering so far this year across most sectors, with the volume of tonnage contracted – 93.6m gt in the first nine months – already greater than the full-year totals of 2022 and 2023. Clarksons is forecasting more than 100m gt will be contracted for the full year, a high level, but still far off the record 172m gt contracted in 2007. 

As of September 2024, the orderbook-to-fleet ratios for bulk carriers, tankers, and gas (LNG and LPG) carriers stood at 10.3%, 12.9%, and 48.4%, respectively, according to data from Greece’s Xclusiv Shipbrokers. These figures represent substantial increases compared to the previous year and even two years ago. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio for bulk carriers, tankers, and gas carriers has grown by 43%, 180%, and 29% respectively over the past two years. 

In what it is anticipating will be a record-breaking year for containership contracting, as of October 14 analysts at Alphaliner have tallied a total of 264 vessels equivalent to 3.11m teu. 

Pending pipeline projects suggests upwards of an additional 400,000 teu could potentially be ordered within this year, according to MB Shipbroking. 

Tanker ordering activity surged last year to its highest level since 2015 and has continued at what broker Gibson described in a new report as a “robust” pace this year. Since January, around 340 confirmed and reported tanker orders have been placed, just marginally below approximately 350 orders placed last year. 

Turning to dry bulk, geared vessel additions continued strong into the third quarter this year, with handysize orders becoming the highest additions in a single quarter since Q1 2017, according to broker SSY. 

High newbuild prices were discussed in depth at last month’s Maritime CEO Forum in Singapore.

“Every time the shipyards have a new design the price goes up and delivery time is further away. A conventional cape is now $80m. I mean in my mind it is inconceivable,” said Stamatis Tsantanis, chairman and CEO of Seanergy Maritime Holdings while Henrik Hartzell, senior advisor at Golden Stena Baycrest Tankers, said: “People are hesitant to go ahead and order [product newbuilds] at $52m or $55m.”

Mark Cameron, COO of Ardmore Shipping, said he felt newbuild prices are now starting to decline, but conceded delivering into 2028 did not look “sexy”, and he stressed to delegates to make sure refund guarantees are in place before signing any deals with yards.

Agreeing that the newbuild price peak was not far off, Alan Hatton, the CEO of Foreguard Shipping, said, “There’s a discrepancy between the price of building a ship now and the input price of that.”

Ordering now is risky given how many geopolitical aspects propping up rates are up in the air such as the wars in Ukraine and around the Red Sea, Hatton argued.

The next edition of the Maritime CEO Forum takes place at the Monaco Yacht Club tomorrow. 

Former President Donald Trump’s tax reform ideas could offer total or partial income tax exemptions to roughly 93.2 million Americans, a meaningful chunk of the U.S. electorate, according to CNBC’s analysis of several estimates.

As part of his economic pitch to voters, Trump has floated a sweeping tax overhaul, including a slate of income tax breaks.

So far, the Republican presidential nominee has officially proposed eliminating income tax on tips and Social Security benefits, along with overtime pay. And last week, in an interview on the sports media site OutKick, Trump said he would consider tax exemptions for firefighters, police officers, military personnel and veterans.

These exemptions are part of Trump’s larger vision to transition away from the income tax system and replace it with the revenue he says would be generated by his hardline tariff proposals.

“In the old days when we were smart, when we were a smart country, in the 1890s and all, this is when the country was relatively the richest it ever was. It had all tariffs. It didn’t have an income tax,” Trump said at a sit-down with voters in New York on Friday for “Fox & Friends.” “Now we have income taxes, and we have people that are dying.”

Trump has pledged to impose a 20% universal tariff on all imports from all countries with a specific 60% rate for Chinese imports.

Tax experts reject the notion that tariff revenue could offset the losses incurred by eliminating income taxes.

“The math doesn’t work out,” Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, told CNBC.

He said Trump’s tariffs would raise approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, far less than the roughly $33 trillion of estimated revenue generated by income taxes over the same period.

Given that tariffs are paid by U.S. importers and those costs have historically been passed on to consumers, Trump’s strategy appears to be based around a notion of replacing income tax revenue with a kind of invisible sales tax.

Tariffs, much like sales tax and other point-of-sale costs, tend to have the biggest impact on low-income consumers, for whom the amounts represent proportionately larger slices of their monthly budgets.

If implemented, Trump’s income tax exemptions could affect tens of millions of taxpayers.

Roughly 68 million Americans receive Social Security benefits each month, according to the Social Security Administration. And in 2023, about 4 million workers were in tipped jobs, according to an estimate from Yale University’s Budget Lab.

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs approximated in March 2023 that there were 18.6 million living veterans. There are 1.3 million active-duty military personnel, according to the Department of Defense. And there are 800,000 sworn law enforcement officers and roughly 500,000 paid firefighters.

Taken together, these reforms could leave about 93.2 million people off the hook for at least a portion, if not all, of their income taxes.

That accounts for about 38% of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote in 2024.

This total excludes the many more people who would be exempt from part of their income taxes if Trump executed his proposed elimination of taxes on overtime pay. And the total could vary based on how much overlap there is between the taxpayer groups Trump has proposed to give tax breaks to.

The tax exemptions on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits would reduce federal tax revenue by $2 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Tax Foundation.

“Trump’s proposed tax exemptions for tips, Social Security benefits, overtime work, and potentially for workers of certain occupations follows a trend of promising narrowly targeted tax benefits without a strong underlying policy rationale and no consideration on how these proposals would impact revenue collections or the complexity of the tax system,” the Tax Foundation’s Watson told CNBC.

Factoring in Trump’s tariff plans and other tax cuts, his overall plan would reduce federal tax revenue by an estimated $3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, the Tax Foundation estimated.

Analysts see Trump’s scheme to move away from income taxes as something of a pipe dream.

“Spoiler alert: We don’t think tariffs will replace income taxes,” Evercore analysts wrote in a June report.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment about Trump’s tax plans.

Trump’s proposed erosion of the income tax system comes as he also pledges to make permanent his 2017 tax cuts, which are due to expire in 2025.

But even if Trump were to win the November election against Harris, his tax overhaul will not see the light of day without a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which is where all tax bills originate.

Republicans currently control the House with a razor-thin margin. Control of the chamber will hinge on the outcome of a small number of competitive districts in November.