2025 ocean bids – 4 key considerations in a disrupted market

 

 

The summer holidays are over and this is the time of the year when children go back to school and when many logistics procurement managers start to plan their annual transport bids for calendar year 2025.

So, what are the key considerations to pay attention to and include in bid strategies for forthcoming ocean transport bids? In this Logistics Executive Briefing, Drewry’s ocean procurement and bid experts are sharing some advice and tips, based on their experience and discussion with other practitioners.

Apply what you have already learnt about capacity and disruptions
It is important to ask providers the capacity they have and can commit to by trade lane, to monitor the market (focusing on the supply outlook, port and landside congestion) and to have contingency plans for ’when’ rather than ’if’ things should go wrong.

Expect more disruptions and capacity bottlenecks in 2025

They could be labour disputes, the Panama Canal tightening allowable transits, demand surges caused by new tariffs or a difficult transition to the new alliances – or all 4 of the above. Even a political resolution of the Red Sea crisis, which is currently not expected for months, could result in a bunching of ship arrivals and unexpected early deliveries of products at warehouses.

Get closer to preferred carrier or NVO partners
Map out your preferred partners: The last 3 years have shown that relationships with ocean carriers have helped Beneficial Cargo Owners “make the best of a bad situation”, when capacity was insufficient and services were running late.

Consider positioning your company as a “preferred partner” of key carriers, looking for joint efficiencies and better visibility of operations and the management of flows between both parties.

Getting capacity and advantageous contract rates from NVOs under “named accounts” arrangements is harder to secure in the current market. Get clarity on any back-to-back arrangements of this kind.

How you retain the right preferred partners will start with mapping out your allocation vision (dream allocation matrix) including who you want to work with and why (rates, capacity, routes). Then you could compare your bid results to your allocation vision – using data analytics to interrogate your offers vs your vision. Use this to negotiate with and make timely decisions

Revisit contract terms and seek transparency of new carbon taxes before the bid
Ensure that contract terms agreed when the shipping market was hot are reviewed and updated before you open your bid, for what should be a more balanced market. Could dead freight penalties be lowered? Could Suez Canal charges disappear contractually if/when the situation is resolved?

Do you have a transparent Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) policy agreed with all your carriers, like a fuel charge policy, to mitigate expected increases in European carbon taxes? Beware that ETS will increase in 2025 and again in 2026, under European regulations, making these surcharges a bigger cost.

Update your bid sheet to include and identify specific, justified surcharges.

De-risk your contracts and service agreements.

Start planning early, but remain flexibility
Contract rates on the major East-West routes are currently only about a third of spot rates – and no shipper wants to experience the type of cost inflation endured by small shippers using mainly spot freight rates.

For the forthcoming bid season, consider start preparation early, but keeping the timeline fluid. Wait until the shipping market has become more stable and more “readable” before going to bid.

If the market improves during the bid, Drewry has found that adding another round can improve results – this is also worth considering.

Our View
The recommended strategy for 2025 ocean bids in Drewry’s view, is to secure sufficient capacity in a disrupted and volatile market at competitive costs, while avoiding being locked into very high contract rates for a long period and without taking on a high risk of unilateral surcharges.

Source: Drewry