The U.S. economy is entering a new phase, driven by fiscal stimulus, development incentives, and the return of business confidence. With the signing of the "Big Beautiful Bill" on July 4th, Donald Trump sends a clear message: Trumponomics is back, more ambitious, more targeted, and more decisive.
It is a comprehensive policy framework, with core pillars being low taxation, support for domestic production, and stability of the investment environment.
Since the beginning of the year, in all our articles, we emphasize our position that the new President Trump is acting with a specific plan and strategy in order to achieve significant and effective changes for the American economy and the U.S. stock market.
Already, up to the moment these lines are written, the image of the investment environment in the U.S. has entered an upward momentum, even though we are approaching July 9th, a milestone date for the expiration of the extension on the imposition of increased tariffs on more than 90 countries. Since Sunday, there have been statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary S. Bessent regarding a possible new extension until August 1st, while it has been reported that several countries are already in negotiation stages up to July 9th, and that new agreements may be announced by then.
Investor confidence has largely returned compared to March - April, however, we have not yet observed investor euphoria. For this reason, we consider that any correction constitutes a new investment opportunity for positions with positive prospects.
Another feature we have repeatedly emphasized is the intense fluctuation and rotation of signs (positive/negative) in the markets, a phenomenon that we do not expect to subside during the entire Trump term. This is particularly profitable for those who monitor the behavior of all asset classes globally, from energy and currencies to indices and stocks.
Within this context, the Q2 and H1 earnings season is beginning, a catalyst for new fluctuations, but also fuel for returns, for any investor who leverages them with strategy and seriousness.
During this quarter, a particularly important statistic is recorded: only two Fed meetings remain out of the four left until year-end. Analysts anticipate 2-3 interest rate cuts in 2025, which means that even a single cut may occur within this quarter.
If Powell continues to oppose Trump’s desire for an aggressive reduction in interest rates, from the current level of 4.50% down to even below 2.00%, then there are a total of seven Fed meetings left until the end of his term in May 2026.
A few days ago, Trump stated that he is considering announcing five candidates this summer to succeed Powell, pointing out that he would like rates to move quickly toward 1.00%. This development could spark significant movement in U.S. markets and the dollar, attracting investment capital aiming to take advantage of the new conditions.
Since the beginning of the year, according to Nasdaq, retail investors bought approximately $3.4 trillion in stocks, while they sold around $3.2 trillion, bringing the total trading volume to over $6.6 trillion.
This demonstrates a clear preference for buying rather than divesting, despite high volatility. The tariffs announced by President Trump concerned the markets, as they reinforced fears of slowdown and inflation, a core argument Powell continues to invoke as a reason not to proceed with rate cuts so far.
The extension of tariffs until the end of August may be the pressure Trump seeks to accelerate rate cuts.
Retail investor behavior was clearly bullish. Net inflows into stocks and ETFs reached $137.6 billion in the first half of 2025, the highest amount recorded since 2014.
As we consistently highlight in every analysis since the beginning of the year, this upward trend is expected to continue throughout the summer, with even greater intensity.
As I also pointed out in our previous article, there are tremendous investment opportunities in the U.S. market. Investors must ignore noise and insecurity, and focus on a strategy that capitalizes on opportunities, as those who trusted us in the past few months have already done.
We anticipate a significant upward move in the markets to higher levels, and a gradual pricing-in of positive developments. This could serve as a catalyst for a new rally, with increased company valuations.
Investing is not a sprint, but a test of endurance. As we often mention, the coming years will be "golden" for shipping, and we expect the same for investments.
All that is required is for the investor to restructure their portfolio in time, so they can fully leverage the opportunities ahead, with the risk level they desire. The current period still allows for such adjustments.
A Message to Maritime Economies Readers
We are pleased to offer, completely free of charge, our portfolio evaluation service to all our readers. Through backtesting and system-based analysis, we will assess whether the risk you have taken matches your objectives and expectations.
With this approach, we aim to help every investor see the "big picture" and move with knowledge, strategy, and consistency.
As we always emphasize:
The greatest returns are often born in uncertain environments.
by Kotsiakis George
