What you need to know today
Stocks’ November reign
Major U.S. indexes climbed on Friday, a shortened day of trading, ending the week and the month higher. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average notched new highs. Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday. China’s CSI 300 added around 0.7% after data showed growing factory activity in the country.
Factory activity in China grows in November
China’s factory activity among smaller firms expanded in November, according to the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index released Monday. Official PMI data, which measures large and state-owned firms, also showed manufacturing activity growth in November. Those are some indications that China’s economy is recovering.
Adani indictment’s aftershocks
The aftershocks of the Adani Group’s indictment continue reverberating. Shares of GQG Partners, a major investor of the group, slumped as much 15.74% on Monday after UBS
downgraded GQG to “neutral” from “buy” on Friday. GQG told CNBC that over 90% of client assets are invested in issuers unrelated to Adani.
Musk sues OpenAI
Attorneys representing Elon Musk filed for a preliminary injunction against OpenAI on Friday. The injunction would block OpenAI from converting into a fully for-profit business and stop OpenAI from allegedly requiring its investors to refrain from funding competitors, including xAI — Musk’s AI startup — and others.
[PRO] Eyes on November’s jobs report
This week’s major piece of data is November’s jobs report, out Friday. It’ll be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last major look at the labor market before its December meeting. If the numbers come in high — October’s 12,000 jobs increase was seen as an aberration because of the effects of hurricanes — they could sway the Fed into cutting rates.
The bottom line
November was a month to remember for stocks.
The S&P 500
climbed 5.73%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
jumped 7.54% in November, marking their best monthly performance this year. The Nasdaq Composite
closed 6.21% higher for its most positive month since May.
Recently, a host of factors have pumped up investors’ sentiment for stocks.
The presidential elections concluded with Donald Trump definitively securing the top seat in the White House. That erased any uncertainty, which investors hate. Also, Trump favors the stock market, tax cuts and deregulation, which investors love.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate for the third quarter. Even though gross domestic product is forecast to be 1.31% in the fourth quarter, according to the St. Louis Fed nowcast, that still denotes an expansion — a stark contrast against nagging fears that a recession would strike the economy.
Slowing growth even has a silver lining. It gives the U.S. Federal Reserve more incentive to cut rates a second time this year at its December meeting, which would stimulate economic activity.
Also, November’s seasonal strength for stocks sent a course of good feelings into investors.
“As we head into December, it’s really hard to fade this bull market here, with all the things going right,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.
Indeed, U.S. stocks are stocks “in the throes of a powerful yearend surge,” according to Rich Ross, Evercore ISI’s chartered market technician. That’s because short sellers, who had bet against the market, are forced to buy stocks to cover their positions as the year ends.
The flurry of purchases, in turn, could push the S&P 500 up to 6,300, Ross added. That implies a 5% upside for December and a 32.1% surge for the whole of 2024 — beating the 24.2% jump the S&P scored in 2023.
With luck, it’ll be 2024, not just November, that investors will with fondness recall.
source: cnbc.com
