The US labor market added far fewer jobs than expected in October as weather disruptions and worker strikes weighed on the labor market.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 12,000 payrolls in October, less than the 100,000 expected by economists.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, partly due to a difference in how the BLS collects data for that metric versus monthly job additions. Workers who were employed but earned no money wouldn't be counted as unemployed in the household survey, which is where the unemployment rate comes from. They would not be considered employed in the payroll survey, which is how job additions are tabulated.
October job additions came in far lower than the revised 223,000 added in September. Monthly job additions for August and September were also revised lower by a combined 112,000.
"Ignore that top line [job additions], look at that 4.1%, and just get on with it," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, told Yahoo Finance. He added, "This is all noise."
Economists warned ahead of Friday's release that recent hurricanes and a strike by Boeing (BA) workers weigh on the labor market data for October. The BLS confirmed that was the case in Friday's release.
"It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes," the BLS wrote in the release. "However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey."
The BLS added that manufacturing jobs declined by 46,000 in October "largely due to strike activity."
Elsewhere in Friday's report, wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose to 4.1% year-over-year from a 4% annual gain in September. On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.4%, compared to a 0.3% gain in September. Additionally, labor force participation fell to 62.6% from 62.7%.
The report is the last major economic release before the Federal Reserve's next policy decision on Nov. 7. Market expectations for that meeting moved little after the jobs report. As of Friday morning, markets were pricing in a roughly 99% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points next week, up from a 95% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Broadly, recent data outside the monthly employment report has shown a labor market that's gradually cooling. Data out Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings fell to their lowest level since January 2021 during the month of September. Meanwhile, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 1.9% in September, down from a revised 2% in August. This marked the lowest quits rate since June 2020.
“The big picture is that the labor market continues to cool down (even beyond hurricane effects), and this should keep the Fed on pace for rate cuts in November and December," Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese wrote in a note on Friday.
