The Wider Gulf Region: Maritime security update
Since yesterday, several merchant vessels were struck in or near the approaches to the Strait of Hormuz. In the latest Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) update the following incidents have been reported:
- SKYLIGHT (IMO 9330020) was reported hit about 5 nm north of Khasab (Oman) with four crew injuries and an evacuation.
- MKD VYOM (IMO 9284386) suffered a projectile strike above the waterline with a fire brought under control.
- An attack on SEA LA DONNA (IMO 9380532) is under investigation.
These incidents mark a shift from warnings to confirmed damage on multiple ships over the last 24–48 hours.
Dryad Global has also assessed that sea mines remain a credible escalation option for Iran because even limited, quickly laid fields can produce disproportionate disruption in a narrow lane such as Hormuz – largely by eroding confidence and forcing slower, controlled movements, as seen during the Iran-Iraq “Tanker ” in 1984 to 1988.
However, this currently remains as an analytical risk, not a confirmed event as yet. There are still no reports of mines being laid, sighted, or detonated at the time of writing, a position that aligns with JMIC’s latest advisory notes.
As such, the immediate response at sea remains operator‑led – ships inside the Gulf have sheltered while others pause or divert away from the Strait of Hormuz. That behaviour reflects the confirmed strikes and ongoing electronic interference (GNSS/AIS/VHF) rather than any declared legal closure. Where sheltering has increased, routine risks rise – tight manoeuvring space, dragging anchors, and misunderstandings on VHF – especially near naval units.
Official and accredited guidance (unchanged but relevant to the new strikes).
- US MARAD Maritime Alert 2026‑001A remains in force: avoid the wider Hormuz/Gulf of Oman/North Arabian Sea area where possible and keep ≥ 30 nm clear of US naval units; maintain contact with NCAGS and monitor official outputs. This alert is consistent with the heightened risk now evidenced by the recent strikes.
- UKMTO advisories continue to emphasise caution, reporting, and awareness of electronic interference and misidentification risks; masters should keep a listening watch on VHF 16 and report abnormal activity promptly.
Following the confirmed vessel strikes, market reporting and security circulars indicate ongoing service suspensions/pauses and sheltering across liner trades serving the Middle East Gulf. This is now widely visible in schedules and anchorage density rather than policy statements.
What this means for shipowner and operators, today:
- Plan for short‑notice traffic control in the approaches (possible speed reductions and controlled movements) if authorities initiate route sanitisation or clearance after any suspected mine-laying.
- Where schedules allow, re‑routing remains the lower‑exposure choice versus extendeholding near chokepoints.
- If sheltering, keep Closest Point of Approach (CPA) margins generous and radio work clear and professional, given the interference reports and close proximity of naval units.
- Maintain full UKMTO/NCAGS reporting and preserve evidence (e.g., log extracts, ECDIS/VDR screenshots of GNSS anomalies, message receipts).
2 March 2026
The maritime risk picture has escalated markedly. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) now assesses the regional maritime threat as CRITICAL (an attack is almost inevitable) after confirmed missile/projectile strikes on multiple merchant vessels in the Gulf of Oman/Strait of Hormuz approaches within the past 24 hours. The UKMTO continues to describe the wider area as highly volatile, warning of sustained GNSS/AIS/VHF interference and noting that VHF claims of a “closure” of the Strait are unverified and not legally binding. In parallel, the U.S. MARAD Maritime Alert 2026‑001A advises vessels to avoid the region where possible and to maintain at least 30 nm separation from US naval units while remaining in contact with NCAGS and monitoring UKMTO/JMIC outputs.
Flag‑state postures have also tightened. The Norwegian Maritime Authority has raised MARSEC/ISPS Level 3 for Norwegian‑flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, signalling a probable or imminent security incident that requires further, specific protective measures under the ISPS Code.
Beyond Hormuz, Lloyd’s List reports the US Navy has established a broad maritime warning zone and cautions that Houthi retaliation in the Red Sea/Bab al‑Mandab cannot be excluded; the EU’s EUNAVFOR ASPIDES mission remains on heightened readiness. Taken together, there is a credible risk of dual‑theatre disruption (Hormuz and Red Sea/BaM) if these trends coincide.
Current situation: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and adjacent waters
JMIC confirms three separate vessel attacks in the last 24 hours:
- SKYLIGHT (IMO 9330020) was hit 5 nm north of Khasab with the crew evacuated and four injuries reported;
- MKD VYOM (IMO 9284386) sustained a projectile strike above the waterline with the fire subsequently controlled;
- SEA LA DONNA (IMO 9380532) reported an attack now under investigation.
JMIC adds that no sea mines have been detected, and it has identified no specific targeting rationale that would distinguish these ships from other commercial traffic.
Although many ships have received VHF hails asserting that the Strait is closed, there is no formal legal closure: JMIC notes no NAVAREA warning, no IMO Maritime Safety Information broadcast, and no charted exclusion zone.
The observed slowdown is a function of operator risk response rather than a promulgated suspension of transit passage. Even so, the throughput reduction is material: against a historic daily average of roughly 138 vessels, the most recent 24‑hour count is around 110.
Port‑side and coastal impacts underline the breadth of exposure. Jebel Ali recorded a debris‑related berth fire following an aerial interception, and anchorage density has increased at both approaches to the Strait; JMIC warns that clustering raises secondary risks – restricted manoeuvring space, anchor dragging, and collision exposure. Electronic warfare effects amplify those hazards: GNSS interference, AIS anomalies, and congested/contradictory VHF are widespread across the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and Hormuz approaches.
Commercial operators are adapting quickly. Hapag‑Lloyd has suspended all transits of the Strait of Hormuz, while CMA CGM has ordered vessels inside or bound for the Gulf to proceed to shelter pending reassessment. On the financing side, JMIC reports a war‑risk market escalation, including Notices of Cancellation with buy‑back options subject to underwriting.
Red Sea/Bab al‑Mandab – Houthi activity and the “second theatre”
Authoritative industry reporting indicates the Houthis are signalling a resumption of missile/drone activity against maritime targets in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden following US–Israeli strikes on Iran, ending a months‑long period of relative calm in late‑2025. MARAD’s standing advisory catalogues the group’s tactics, techniques and procedures – from one‑way UAVs/USVs/UUVs to cruise/ballistic missiles, explosive boats, small‑arms fire and seizures – and cautions that targeting has extended beyond vessels with clear Israeli/US affiliations to occasional misidentification and collateral strikes. In anticipation of renewed pressure along the Red Sea corridor, the EU has extended Operation ASPIDES to 28 February 2027, sustaining defensive coverage and situational awareness along the Bab al-Mandeb (BaM) corridor, even as resources remain finite.
The strategic concern is the overlap: a constrained Hormuz at the same time as renewed Red Sea/BaM activity yields a dual‑chokepoint problem with few workable maritime bypasses for Gulf‑bound cargo and heightened uncertainty for schedules, insurance and chartering.
What to do now
- Refresh the Voyage Risk Assessment: before any approach to the affected waters, incorporating the latest JMIC, UKMTO, MARAD and flag‑state directives. Also factor explicitly for dual‑theatre exposure (Hormuz + Red Sea/BaM).
- Operate per the security level in force: Norwegian‑flagged vessels: implement MARSEC/ISPS Level 3 measures in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz/Gulf of Oman; whereas other flags should escalate posture per CSO guidance and flag instructions.
- Communicate and verify: Pre‑register/report with UKMTO; maintain a continuous VHF Ch.16 watch; respond professionally to directed hails; where practicable maintain ≥30 nm from U.S. naval units per MARAD. Treat unverified “closure” broadcasts as situational inputs, not legal restrictions – while still guarding against miscalculation near military units.
- Navigate with redundancy: Expect GNSS/AIS degradation; cross‑check positions with radar ranges, visual bearings and echo sounder; preserve screenshots and VDR extracts when anomalies occur to support insurance and post‑incident analysis.
- Manage density and timing: In congested approaches, plan generous CPAs, predictable courses/speeds and, where feasible, consider delaying, rerouting, or seeking escort/accompaniment recognising finite naval capacity (e.g., ASPIDES in Red Sea/BaM; situational awareness toward Hormuz).
Source: Skuld
