Guinea’s emergence as a source of great cargoes for the cape trades and China’s booming electric vehicle manufacturers is increasingly being joined by other West African nations.
Led by Guinean stems, capesize and above parcels ex-West Africa have increased by a per annum growth rate of 19.6% since 2018, according to analysts at broker BRS who expect volumes to hit north of 150m tons this year (see chart below).
BRS data shows about 20% of capesize and above shipments in terms of volumes from the region are from Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Ghana and Gabon.
Mauritania is Africa’s second-largest iron ore producer, with Sierra Leone also increasing shipments fast but not as fast as Ghana where iron ore exports have leapt by 76% in the first nine months of the year. Gabon’s high-grade manganese ore, meanwhile, entered the capesize market in 2022, utilising transhipment facilities outside Libreville to load large ships via barges for export.
The extraordinary growth of the bauxite capesize trades out of Guinea to China has made many headlines this year, with the route now firmly entrenched as a “pivotal pillar” of capesize prospects, BRS noted in an earlier report.
Showing how fast this rise has been, BRS data shows that for every one Guinea cape stem, there are approximately 1.67 Brazilian requirements in the first nine months of 2024. In contrast, back in the pre-pandemic year of 2019, for every one Guinea stem, there were approximately 337 Brazilian requirements.
Bauxite, the only minor bulk cargo traded primarily on capes, represents roughly 13% of global cape volumes, up from 10% last year and 5% in 2020, according to analysis from Jefferies, an investment bank.
Guinea’s meteoric rise as a generator of bauxite for the Chinese market is set to be accompanied by its establishment as a major iron ore supplier for China in the coming years with the much hyped opening next year of the Simandou iron ore mine.
