Nearly two in three vintage tankers have carried Iranian, Venezuelan or Russian cargoes this year.
According to estimates from broker Gibson, nearly 63% of all tankers above 25,000 dwt built in 2009 or older are either trading sanctioned Iranian, sanctioned Venezuelan and/or have been solely engaged in Russian trade over the past six months.
The trading lifespan of these vessels is undoubtedly longer than in the conventional market, making it very hard for tanker experts to assess the prospects for tanker demolition and evaluate it against the existing orderbook.
The sheer scale of the tanker fleet engaged in carrying sanctioned cargoes comes at a time when the global tanker fleet is ageing. Approximately 48% of today’s tanker fleet in dwt terms will be over 21 years old in 2030, according to data from Greece’s Xclusiv Shipbrokers.
The US, European Union and the UK have been leading efforts to clamp down on the shadow fleet, but experts believe it is near impossible to regulate.
Global insurer Allianz’s annual shipping report published earlier this year noted of the shadow fleet: “Despite efforts to crack down on these vessels, the number of tankers is actually increasing, and we have seen a number of groundings and collision incidents.”
“Although regulators and governments are evidently keeping an eye on the grey fleet, its enormous size now arguably makes it harder to regulate,” stated a recent report from broker, BRS.
Pictured is the Pablo, an aframax belonging to the shadow fleet that exploded in Malaysian waters and was one of the most high-profile ship casualties of 2023.
