The Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), a consortium of prominent container shippers who want to buy carbon-free ocean freight services, says that it expects the market to have enough methanol-capable boxships and green methanol fuel to support a coordinated purchase of e-fuel-powered shipping services next year.
ZEMBA's newly-released report (prepared with LR) draws on a request for information that it sent to e-fuel producers and shipping lines earlier this year. ZEMBA plans to start a new tender for e-fuel-powered shipping in 2025, which will buy the equivalent of 3.5 billion TEU-nautical miles of zero-carbon freight service over the span of three years. The survey found that there would be enough fuel and enough methanol-capable ships to carry out ZEMBA's goals, though the organization did not ask about price.
The fuel supply projection suggests that there will be about 390,000 tonnes heavy fuel oil equivalent in 2027 and just over one million tonnes in 2030. These supplies will be subject to competition from other methanol-hungry industries, like plastics manufacturers, but ZEMBA says that nearly 80 percent of its projected fuel availability comes from maritime-focused suppliers.
ZEMBA's tenders are designed to create a market for zero-carbon fuels at scale and drive further adoption. To qualify for ZEMBA's tender process, shipping lines have to move at least 1.15 billion TEU-nm per year using a fuel that reduces GHG emissions by at least 90 percent. The tender requires emissions certification and fuel lifecycle emissions assessment.
The organization's first tender was held in April 2024, and Hapag-Lloyd won the award. Under the contract, Hapag will help ZEMBA's members to avoid 82,000 tonnes of CO2 in 2025-6 - though with biomethane, not with e-fuels. The first e-methanol supplies on the open market will likely be available at scale in 2027-8.
"Rapid deployment of hydrogen-derived e-fuels this decade is crucial to ensure that the maritime sector gets on a 1.5 aligned pathway toward full decarbonization by 2050, at the latest," said Ingrid Irigoyen, President and CEO of ZEMBA. "ZEMBA’s aim is to open the door to new and increasingly scalable solutions through each of our tender processes."
The survey found no e-methane (e-LNG) projects that are in the post-final investment decision phase, suggesting that shipowners will have a hard time sourcing this fuel type before 2030. E-ammonia will also take time to enter the ocean freight business, as the first ammonia-capable boxships have yet to be ordered and are not expected until 2027 at the earliest.
