Oil exports and transit from Russia’s western ports in October are expected to stay close to September’s record levels due to increased refinery activity, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations.
Shipments of Urals, Siberian Light, and KEBCO grades from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk may fall by around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) from last month to about 2.3 million bpd, based on average estimates and data provided by industry sources.
Russia’s growing OPEC+ quota and ongoing refinery maintenances support strong exports despite an expected increase in domestic processing. Russia’s October OPEC+ quota rose by 93,000 bpd from September to 9.457 million bpd.
Record refinery outages in August and September pushed last month’s exports to a record 2.5 million bpd, while Russia’s idle refining capacity in October is expected to ease below August levels, providing for higher domestic throughput, sources said.
However, drone attacks on refineries — including a fire at Kirishinefteorgsintez on October 4 — may prompt upward revisions to export plans, while attacks on pipeline infrastructure could limit export capacity.
Russia has been gradually raising its oil production and was close last month to meeting the output quota agreed by the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported.
Source: Reuters reported by Reuters, edited by Susan Fenton
