The New Global Balance. Markets, Politics and the Opportunities Behind Silence

 

 

November, up until Thanksgiving Day, is traditionally one of the most decisive months of the year, and especially this year, when the markets began statistically negative during Trump’s first 100 days. Nevertheless, in our view, it finds global markets in a rare phase of equilibrium. The excess of fear, as we have repeatedly emphasized lately, has passed, as has the excess of euphoria, particularly in the technology sector. Investors must begin to approach this new period with a more mature perspective. We underline that the stability of the American economy is not accidental, but the result of political and strategic decisions aimed at reconstructing its productive foundation.

Volatility has noticeably declined; investors should no longer chase “easy profits” but seek opportunities of substance. The market, after years of excesses and crises, seems to be entering a period of normality, not passive stagnation, but creative stability and absorption of both corporate and political developments.
And within this environment, opportunities begin to quietly emerge, for those who are well-studied and correctly positioned.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, with its latest stance, has managed, unfortunately only slightly, to calm investors, but at the same time, its actions no longer attract as much attention. As of May, the power it once projected is gradually passing to President Trump’s circle, and this is already being priced in with great precision by those who can read the moves on the board. Bond yields have stabilized, the cost of capital appears to be settling, and companies can now plan with foresight rather than fear. As you will notice below, this scenario has already begun to be reflected in the trajectory and valuations of several companies, as lower interest rates favor certain sectors and businesses far more than others.

The S&P 500 moves within a zone of steady and mature growth, it is neither a “bubble” nor a cause for panic. This alleged bubble has in fact been shaped by a handful of specific companies, no more than ten. NVIDIA, for example, in 2025 so far has added 4.40% to the S&P 500’s performance out of the index’s total 12.5% rise. If we add the other major players (Apple Inc., Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet Inc. (Class A), Broadcom, Alphabet Inc. (Class C), Meta, Tesla), we observe that together these companies have contributed 11.98% of the index’s gain since the start of the year. So, what kind of “bubble” are we really talking about?

Investors should gradually turn their attention to sectors that have been undervalued for years: industry, energy, raw materials, and logistics. The shift from purely technological outperformance toward the real economy has already begun, for those who move not according to the headlines, but with strategy and professional guidance.

This “return to substance,” which we continually emphasize, is perhaps the most positive development of recent years: markets are rediscovering the value of production, not just promise.

With Donald Trump back at the forefront, whether institutionally or as a political influence, the rhetoric and reality of the global economy have already changed. The American doctrine is shifting from the theory of “borderless globalization” to a model of controlled national interest, in other words, Make America Great Again, a motto China has been effectively applying for decades. This is no longer about ideological antagonism, but about cold pragmatism defined by energy, technology, and strategic production.

The United States is aiming for an industrial revival, bringing production lines back onto American soil, creating new investment pathways and opportunities. The investment message is clear: the new era does not belong to “low-cost production,” but to high strategic value. Defense, energy, industrial technology, and logistics are becoming the new pillars of American dominance.

Europe, meanwhile, seems trapped in its own inertia. Despite having know-how and institutional stability, it fails to translate these advantages into investment dynamism. Bureaucracy, energy dependence, and the absence of a unified strategy prevent capital from staying within the continent.

In contrast, Asia continues to adapt with agility. The economies of South and Southeast Asia demonstrate resilience, but geopolitical instability and China’s growing introversion limit the transparency of long-term prospects. The result is that investment flows are returning to the United States. The U.S. uniquely combines institutional stability, energy self-sufficiency, and political will for growth, a mix not found elsewhere today.

The most meaningful investment opportunities are not born in the headlines but in the silence of the market. When the indices fail to inspire enthusiasm, when the media finds no “drama,” that is precisely when serious investors begin to build positions.

The current period is characteristic: neither fear nor euphoria, simply calm and selective positioning. This is the ideal environment for the strategic investor, who does not wait for mass excitement to move, but acts contrary to the crowd.

History shows that great returns are not achieved in times of panic or euphoria, but through patience in times of indifference. The world does not change by chance, it is being reshaped. Markets adapt, economies reorganize, and political leaderships redefine their positions on the global map. At the center of all this lies investment consciousness: the ability to see beyond the noise, to recognize stability amid uncertainty, and to take position when others are waiting for “signals.”

The new era of markets, in the coming years, will not be an era of speed but one of strategy and endurance. Those investors who grasp this early will be the ones who prevail, not through luck, but through foresight. All the above are reflected in the following tables, showing how sectors have performed amid uncertainty, and what is expected in the coming years. And because we are living in the age of speed and AI, the time one loses before positioning themselves is of great importance, something I have been stressing since the start of the year.

Performance of Key Sectors:


The diversification of returns proves that the market is entering a phase of qualitative selection. Investment advisors do not follow the crowd, they assess sectors and companies based on their long-term strategic value. This silent shift is the healthiest signal we have seen in years. Strategic positioning is not a matter of speed but of direction. Those who understand this will already be one step ahead in the next phase of the market. Good returns to all !!!





by Kotsiakis George